Revised Forecast for Japan's Vehicle Demand in Calendar Year 2011

posted Oct 20, 2011, 10:48 PM by Loose Tube

JAMA - September 30, 2011

Released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) in December 2010, the original forecast for vehicle demand in Japan in calendar 2011 became inapplicable as a consequence of the earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan on March 11 this year and various resulting factors, including a shifting economic environment, changes in consumer confidence, and severe disruptions in automakers’ supply chains. 

With the domestic production operations of Japan’s vehicle manufacturers now well on the way to full recovery, present conditions have made it possible to formulate revised demand projections for the current calendar year.  The revised general demand forecast for 2011 is as follows:

Motorcycles

The motorcycle market in Japan has been locked in a prolonged slump, attributable to a number of factors including the shrinking youth population and shifts in market trends for consumer goods.  In 2011, however, the introduction of new models is expected to help boost overall motorcycle sales to a total of 435,000 units, up 2.7% from 2010.

1) Class-1 Motor-Driven Cycles (50cc & under)
Demand is forecast to surge in this category over the previous year, as a result, first, of a general focus on economy and energy conservation (driven by the impact of the recent recession and by the March 11 disaster) and, second, of the introduction of new models.

2) Class-2 Motor-Driven Cycles (51cc & over)
In 2011 sales of motorcycles with engine capacity of 51cc or greater—with the exception of motorcycles in the small-sized category (over 250cc), for which demand is projected to decline amid economic uncertainty—are expected to grow compared to 2010, owing partly to the introduction of new models in both the Class-2 (51cc-125cc) and mini-sized (126cc-250cc) categories.  

See the original article in full at http://www.jama-english.jp/statistics/forecast/2011/110930.html