Forecast for Vehicle Demand in Japan in Calendar Year 2011

posted Jun 9, 2011, 8:16 PM by Loose Tube   [ updated Jul 26, 2011, 11:49 PM ]

JAMA - December 17, 2010

  1. Total Demand for Motorcycles

    The Japanese domestic motorcycle market continues to languish in a prolonged slump, caused by the decline in the number of young people, shifts in consumer preferences and other factors. This is also the result of uncertainty over the economy, higher vehicle prices from mandatory compliance with emissions regulations, the chronic shortage of motorcycle parking availability in urban areas and other negative aspects that have not been readily resolved. While there are also positive developments from the effects of new models, projections are for a continued trend of depressed overall sales for motorcycles. Against this backdrop, the final figures for motorcycle demand in Japan for 2010, and the performance forecasts for 2011, are forecast as follows.

    1. Total motorcycle demand in Japan in calendar 2010 should finish at 419,000 units, down 3.3% from 2009. 
      This reflects declining sales in the Class-1 motor-driven cycle, mini-sized motorcycle and small-sized motorcycle displacement categories.

    2. For calendar 2011, while demand for Class-2 motor-driven cycles is expected to run solid, sales of Class-1 motor-driven cycles, mini-sized motorcycles and small-sized motorcycles are believed to dip slightly below the previous year levels. As a result, total domestic motorcycle demand in 2011 is projected at 409,000 units, down 2.4% from 2011.

  2. Class-1 Motor-Driven Cycles (50cc & under)
    1. Demand for Class-1 motor-driven cycles in 2010 should be 228,000 units, down 10.8% from 2009. 
      This sales decline has been caused by prolonged purchase reluctance under the impact of rising vehicle prices due to mandatory compliance with emissions regulations.

    2. In 2011, projections are for a continuation of purchase reluctance underscoring anxiety over the direction of the economy. Consequently, sales in this category are expected fall to 216,000 units (down 5.3% from 2010).

  3. Class-2 Motor-Driven Cycles (51cc-125cc)
    1. Demand for Class-2 motor-driven cycles in 2010 should finish at 96,000 units, a jump of 45.7% from 2009. This is the result of a major advance in sales, buoyed by new model effects that have keenly stimulated consumer confidence.

    2. In 2011, the new model effects carried over from the previous year are expected to continue to be a positive factor, with sales climbing by 7.3% over 2010 to 103,000 units.

  4. Mini-Sized Motorcycles (126cc-250cc)
    1. Mini-sized motorcycle sales in 2010 are projected to finish at 37,000 units, a slump of 23.1% from the previous year. The declining purchase power among younger age groups, together with continued reluctance to purchase scooters (particularly in urban areas) has led to this major drop in demand.

    2. In 2011, the continued harsh conditions in the employment and income environments, primarily for younger age groups, should hold total annual sales in this motorcycle category to 34,000 units – an 8.1% decline from 2010.

  5. Small-Sized Motorcycles (over 250cc)
    1. Sales of small-sized motorcycles in 2010 are projected to close out the year at 58,000 units, a drop of 9.0% from 2009. 
      This demand decline is indicative of the severe employment and income conditions for middle-aged and elderly riders, the core buyers in this motorcycle class, which is adversely impacting consumer confidence.

    2. For 2011, despite expectations for new model effects, there will also continue to be uncertainty about what the employment and income situation may hold. As a result of that and other factors, overall demand for motorcycles in this class is expected to conclude the year at 56,000 units, down 3.4% from 2010.

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